Croke Park, Dublin, Sunday November 16, 4.15am
Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
TV: Fox Sports 3 (from 4.10am)
Brian O'Driscoll will mark his 50th Test as Ireland captain against New Zealand in Dublin on Saturday with a 103-year-old record of failure crying out to be ended.
But the form suggests that will not happen and in the build-up to the game, the Irish have been cautious about giving off any strong impression of believing they can make history at Croke Park.
Instead, they have adopted the language of quiet determination rather than boisterous expectation.
"We do have a poor record against New Zealand," said Ireland team manager Paul McNaughton. "We've never beaten them but a lot of the games have been very close."
That was certainly the case when the teams last met in Wellington in June when the score was level at 11-11 with 20 minutes left before the All Blacks ran out 21-11 winners.
"The players have got a lot more confident in themselves over the last three or four years, so I don't believe there is any psychological problem here," McNaughton added.
"The games have been close over there and the guys feel that they could have won two out of four of those games."
The understated approach is very much new Ireland head coach Declan Kidney's way. After seeing his team put 55 unanswered points past Canada last weekend, he has, however, made six changes.
Experienced campaigners John Hayes, Rory Best, David Wallace, Alan Quinlan and Girvan Dempsey all return but Kidney can argue he is still giving youth its chance.
Centre Luke Fitzgerald makes his second start, on the wing Rob Kearney gets his 10th cap and, at scrum-half, Tomas O'Leary makes his first start, and only his second Test appearance, in what could prove to be the selection most crucial to Ireland's chances of success.
New Zealand coach Graham Henry has also picked an experienced team, bringing back Ma'a Nonu and Joe Rokocoko in the backs. Dan Carter returns at stand-off, while captain Richie McCaw and Brad Thorn rejoin the pack.
And 33-year-old lock forward Thorn is expecting a bruising encounter against Ireland's second-row pairing of Paul O'Connell and Donncha O'Callaghan.
"They're very solid. O'Connell is a leader - all those Munster guys are battle-hardened - they've won big games. It's a daunting task, we actually really rate these guys."
New Zealand approach the game, after a confident 32-6 win against Scotland in the first game of their tour but, as his selection suggests, Henry is expecting a far more serious test this weekend.
"The Irish showed passion and physicality when they played us in New Zealand earlier in the year and we are expecting another tough Test match," said Henry.
He is wise to expect it. Kidney is notoriously canny and could have a surprise or two in store.
Saturday will be the first time New Zealand have played at Croke Park, the home of Gaelic Games.
The 80,000-seater stadium is much bigger than Lansdowne Road, currently undergoing redevelopment, and could become a cauldron of passion with O'Driscoll's anniversary a motivating factor.
Dempsey, a Leinster colleague of O'Driscoll, believes his team-mates will be giving everything to make sure their skipper marks his milestone in style.
"Beating the All Blacks for the first time on the same day as Brian reaches his 50 Tests as captain would be fairytale stuff," the full-back said.
"All the players are aware of the achievement and will do everything they possibly can to ensure it's a special day for him."
Ireland: Girvan Dempsey; Tommy Bowe, Brian O'Driscoll (capt), Luke Fitzgerald, Robert Kearney; Ronan O'Gara, Tomas O'Leary; Jamie Heaslip, David Wallace, Alan Quinlan; Paul O'Connell, Donncha O'Callaghan; John Hayes, Rory Best, Marcus Horan. Res: Jerry Flannery, Tony Buckley, Stephen Ferris, Shane Jennings, Eoin Reddan, Paddy Wallace, Keith Earls
New Zealand: Mils Muliaina; Joe Rokocoko, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Sitiveni Sivivatu; Dan Carter, Jimmy Cowan; Rodney So'oialo, Richie McCaw (capt), Jerome Kaino; Ali Williams, Brad Thorn; Neemia Tialata, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock. Res: Corey Flynn, John Afoa, Anthony Boric, Kieran Read, Piri Weepu, Stephen Donald, Isaia Toeava.
Past five encounters:
New Zealand 21 Ireland 11, Wellington, 2008
New Zealand 27 Ireland 17, Auckland, 2006
New Zealand 34 Ireland 23, Hamilton, 2006
Ireland 7 New Zealand 45, Dublin, 2005
New Zealand 40 Ireland 8, Auckland 2002
AFP
