ONE of the consequences of rugby becoming a professional sport is that the status and success of the coach has become seemingly even more important than the performances produced by the players.
When there was all the talk earlier in the season about the Waratahs' lacklustre play, the focus was essentially on the performance of coach Ewen McKenzie. So the NSWRU, with its traditional lack of wisdom, decided not to renew McKenzie's contract - despite having stated that a new deal would be forthcoming if he took the Waratahs to the finals.
McKenzie has fulfilled his part of the bargain by leading NSW to the Super 14 final (and a $2million windfall for the NSWRU). But, for the most successful of the five coaches the Waratahs have had (Chris Hawkins, Matt Williams, Ian Kennedy, Bob Dwyer and McKenzie), the die has been cast.
The two major complaints against McKenzie were: first, the Waratahs' boring style of play earlier in the year, which, after a poor 2007 season, led to a sizeable fall in crowds. (Curiously, though, the pay-TV viewing figures this season are up 19 per cent.) Second was NSW's abject, trying-not-to-lose-badly performance in their 2005 final defeat to the Crusaders. The McKenzie gameplan was considered to have crumbled when it came to the crunch.
Now he has a chance to redeem his reputation. The 2008 Waratahs have a strong line-out, which took four balls against the throw against the Sharks. They have a balanced back row, with the in-your-face play of Phil Waugh, the power of Wycliff Palu and Rocky Elsom doing a good impersonation of Tah Man on the rampage. At halfback, Luke Burgess has the speed and quickness in the pass of a Ken Catchpole, and, thankfully, a reluctance to resort to the meaningless box kicks of the previous incumbent. The young centre, Rob Horne, is quick in thought and action in defence and attack. And the team has an abrasive, growling defence that is actually one of their most decisive attacking weapons, as Lote Tuqiri's try against the Sharks demonstrated. What McKenzie doesn't have is a reliable goal-kicker. Kurtley Beale has the worst kicking record of all the Super 14 goal-kickers this season, slotting fewer than 60 per cent of his attempts.
He missed four against the Sharks, while Daniel Carter kicked seven out of seven for the Crusaders against the Hurricanes. There are, admittedly, fewer penalty shots under the experimental law variations - but there are more conversions. The scarcity of the penalty attempts makes it imperative that a kicker's success rate is high.
Then there is the poor record of the Waratahs against the Crusaders at Christchurch in general, and the defeatist style of play adopted down there - particularly in the 2005 final. NSW were so fearful of the way the Crusaders were able to convert turnovers into break-away tries that they kicked away virtually all the ball they won. Therefore, the Crusaders were under no pressure to defend.
The Crusaders ran the ball back and back and back, and eventually scored a hat-full of points. It was only when the final was lost that NSW started running the ball hard at the Crusaders. Gaps were created. Breaks were made and the Waratahs racked up points. But they had committed the cardinal error of finals rugby - leaving their game in the dressing room.
The game plan was wrong in 2005. Have the lessons of past failures been learnt? The Crusaders are not unbeatable. The Chiefs and Highlanders beat them this season by taking the game to them for the entire match.
Hopefully, the McKenzie gameplan for Saturday will have NSW playing to win in a way that matches their positive motto: "Go the Tahs!"
