The game has evolved in recent years. We now play in a Super 14 competition rather than a Super 12 and we play 15 Tests a year instead of 10, which puts a huge strain on resources.
In a World Cup year last season, two Australian provinces finished last and second last, which created its own problems. It also hit me how few people in Australia understood world rugby and what is required.
But it was great to see during the Pacific Nations Cup how much our depth has improved. There are now many players challenging for Test spots and the future is looking pretty good.
I believe we have a genuine chance of winning the Tri Nations. In the past two years Australia have finished second to New Zealand, with South Africa picking up the wooden spoon.
The previous year it was the Wallabies dragging the chain. We have seen an improvement that should continue again this year.
Australia's home record during the past few years has been outstanding.
This year we have two home games against New Zealand and one against South Africa in Perth. The Springboks have traditionally struggled on the road and it appears little has changed judging by their loss to New Zealand last Saturday.
The big test, and perhaps the ultimate decider for the Wallabies, will be the South African leg of the journey, the second and third-last games of the Tri Nations. Here's my impression of the teams:
New Zealand: The All Blacks have had to meet many challenges in the past year, having lost 15 of their top players overseas. They have handled this surprisingly well. The major loss is prop Carl Hayman. The Wallabies were always concerned about his ability to destroy our scrum and we handled the All Blacks pack well whenever he was absent. If Richie McCaw misses the Test in Sydney on July 26 because of his ankle injury, it will be a huge bonus for Australia. He's an outstanding player, arguably one of the top two or three in the world. The New Zealand lineout has been their Achilles heel and in my time with the Wallabies we used to love attacking their lineout. It hasn't improved, as highlighted when they lost seven to the Springboks. Their scrum threat is Greg Somerville and Tony Woodcock. While many Australians don't rate Woodcock, I do, and scrummaging is a part of the All Blacks' game that must be respected. Even though we lost the Bledisloe Cup decider last year, we dominated large parts of the game. And after our win in Melbourne last year there is a genuine belief that the Australian team can beat New Zealand. Anywhere. Any time.
South Africa: They played well against Wales and have good depth, except their cover for Butch James. If they lose their five-eighth it will disrupt them no end. It must be said that coach Peter de Villiers and his assistants have done surprisingly well. They are starting to shake off the hangover from the World Cup. Long-term, the Springboks will be very suited to the ELVs because of their size and pace, although they have initially been slow to adapt. Australia know they can't afford to play the South Africans in the lineout. New Zealand continually kept the ball in play when they kicked last Saturday. Keep the Springboks away from the lineout and you're halfway to winning the game.
Centre Jean de Villiers is the brains behind their back-line play, just as Victor Matfield is in the forwards. Australia should account for them in Perth without too many problems but the games in South Africa will be difficult.
Australia: Robbie Deans cast the die very early with his Tri Nations team. With Dunning out injured - he'll probably come back into the team off the bench - Benn Robinson, Stephen Moore and Al Baxter have settled into the front row. The second-row berths are more uncertain due to the form of James Horwill and the fitness clouds over Nathan Sharpe and Dan Vickerman. But those two have plenty of experience and you'd think if they are fit they will take their place. Wycliff Palu and Rocky Elsom will be there in the back row and the eternal battle between George Smith and Phil Waugh will again be waged, although Waugh probably has his nose in front.
Just like the forwards, Deans has kept a very stable back line. Luke Burgess, Matt Giteau, Berrick Barnes and Stirling Mortlock will all be there, and Lote Tuqiri will come back on the wing. I can't see Peter Hynes, who has played all of the Tests this year, missing out. The injury to Cameron Shepherd means Adam Ashley-Cooper will slot in at fullback. The bench will play a massive part in the Tri Nations and this is a strength of the Wallabies. There is plenty of experience, headed by Sam Cordingley, Smith, Adam Freier and Dunning, who all add something when they come into the game. The Australians realise they will have to step up significantly from their initial Test performances. We got away with the odd mistake against France and Ireland as we worked on our combinations but any errors will now be punished. We should be very positive about our chances of going all the way in the Tri Nations this year.
Source: The Sun-Herald
